Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The Cutwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Pangolier
lukiluki · 5 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 4 games
Abaddon
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Hoodwink
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Lion
yarintheslayer · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Bloody Nine · 3 games
The Cut
Snapfiresignature
Giant · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Marsoften banned
dnm · 4 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dnm · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
dnm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
428 picks · 316 bans
Mars
401 picks · 584 bans
Queen of Pain
336 picks · 396 bans
Weaver
332 picks · 751 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 178 bans
Kunkka
259 picks · 443 bans
Spirit Breaker
253 picks · 364 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 167 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 78%
Hero pool strength57% The Cut
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:31
Team DogChamp 51%The Cut 49%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinStoneBank
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Tidehunterlukiluki
Marsdnm
Dark Willowyarintheslayer
Shadow ShamanGiant
Treant ProtectorBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Team DogChamp 50%The Cut 50%
The model gave 50% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
Marslukiluki
Night Stalkerdnm
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
SnapfireGiant
BaneBloody Nine
Game 3prediction missed20:39
Team DogChamp 51%The Cut 49%
The model gave 51% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by The Cut in 44:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
Wraith KingScourge McDuck
Beastmasterlukiluki
Marsdnm
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
Skywrath MageGiant
BaneBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 55%
Series resultThe Cut 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3