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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 16 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
88%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
RCY · 8 games
75%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Babitich · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Sunlight · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Sammyboy · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
832 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
600 picks · 415 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 540 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 421 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
491 picks · 800 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
442 picks · 922 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 287 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total53% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:22
Team DogChamp 49%Wildcard Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
50% · 219 games56% · 264 games
Nature's ProphetYawaR
Nature's Prophet
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
42% · 98 games52% · 227 games
BeastmasterLil_Nick
Beastmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSunlight
46% · 473 games48% · 430 games
RubickMSS
Rubick
Monkey King
Monkey KingFrancisLee
52% · 238 games51% · 323 games
SnapfireSammyboy
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerBloody Nine
52% · 216 games
Game 2prediction correct44:13
Team DogChamp 50%Wildcard Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuma
55% · 103 games51% · 274 games
Nature's ProphetLil_Nick
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSunlight
50% · 404 games49% · 26 games
Wraith KingYawaR
Wraith King
Puck
PuckRCY
57% · 254 games48% · 339 games
MarciMSS
Marci
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFrancisLee
53% · 223 games46% · 518 games
RubickSammyboy
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerBloody Nine
41% · 173 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 53%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2