Immortal Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DYwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team FYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DY
No games played over 6 months.
Team FY
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 537 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 221 bans
Terrorblade
343 picks · 647 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 450 bans
Ancient Apparition
296 picks · 669 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 222 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Team DY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team DY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:25
Team DY 76%Team FY 24%
The model gave 76% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 37:09.
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Team DY 76%Team FY 24%
The model gave 76% on Team DY — the game was taken by Team DY in 33:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DY · 76%
Series resultTeam DY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2