Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopeloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Anime Enjoyerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 11 games
Iosignature
antoha · 8 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
Anime Enjoyers
Marcisignature
sunset · 6 games
Earth Spirit
sunset · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Coblackk · 4 games
Shadow Fiend
Ulnit · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Coblackk · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
sunset · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Ulnit · 2 games
Rubick
sunset · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
611 picks · 461 bans
Marci
460 picks · 670 bans
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 534 bans
Puck
371 picks · 825 bans
Winter Wyvern
315 picks · 397 bans
Death Prophet
303 picks · 483 bans
Zeus
263 picks · 348 bans
Dazzle
260 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
Team Empire Hope 60%Anime Enjoyers 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudgekrylat
Shadow FiendUlnit
Ioantoha
Nyx Assassinsunset
Game 2prediction missed8:23
Team Empire Hope 52%Anime Enjoyers 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Anime Enjoyers in 12:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterkrylat
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Silencerantoha
Marcisunset
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 60%
Series resultAnime Enjoyers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2