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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Bane
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 19 games
32%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
53%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Shisui · 13 games
38%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 12 games
33%

cybercats

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fezor · 2 games
50%
Riki
Riki
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fezor · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fezor · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
544 picks · 373 bans
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 567 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
446 picks · 604 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
427 picks · 785 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 170 bans
45%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 571 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
341 picks · 544 bans
53%
Wraith King
Wraith King
284 picks · 342 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:32
Team Empire 54%cybercats 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by cybercats in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaCooman
60% · 46 games46% · 104 games
Troll WarlordShigetsu
Troll Warlord
Mars
MarsDkFogas
47% · 102 games54% · 9 games
PugnaUSHUSHUSH
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderDodren
41% · 36 games56% · 164 games
RubickFezor
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
54% · 74 games
Jakiro
Jakiro[T]SA
36% · 19 games
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Team Empire 54%cybercats 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCooman
53% · 139 games46% · 147 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDodren
54% · 140 games51% · 207 games
Storm SpiritUSHUSHUSH
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDkFogas
63% · 122 games46% · 257 games
GrimstrokeFezor
Grimstroke
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAntares
45% · 122 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern[T]SA
47% · 88 games
Game 3prediction correct29:12
Team Empire 52%cybercats 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 23:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCooman
47% · 58 games52% · 175 games
LeshracUSHUSHUSH
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDodren
41% · 77 games55% · 123 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDkFogas
38% · 62 games50% · 58 games
JakiroFezor
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
60% · 120 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi[T]SA
49% · 39 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 59%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3