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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EXTREMUMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
20%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
50%

EXTREMUM

Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 720 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
327 picks · 421 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
276 picks · 490 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
255 picks · 217 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
238 picks · 352 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
230 picks · 129 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 448 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 659 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Team Empire 36%EXTREMUM 64%
The model gave 64% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 30:11.
Game 2prediction missed6:31
Team Empire 36%EXTREMUM 64%
The model gave 64% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:05.
Game 3prediction missed25:25
Team Empire 36%EXTREMUM 64%
The model gave 64% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by Team Empire in 43:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 64%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3