EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
342 picks · 689 bans
Void Spirit
322 picks · 403 bans
Mars
271 picks · 476 bans
Earth Spirit
252 picks · 211 bans
Death Prophet
226 picks · 335 bans
Rubick
226 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 641 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 76%
Hero pool strength63% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:48
Team Empire 14%Hellbear Smashers 86%
The model gave 86% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 42:30.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Empire 14%Hellbear Smashers 86%
The model gave 86% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:49.
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Team Empire 14%Hellbear Smashers 86%
The model gave 86% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 86%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3