Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Bane
Kaori · 22 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 16 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
Void Spirit
Shisui · 15 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
449 picks · 335 bans
Mars
425 picks · 608 bans
Queen of Pain
357 picks · 436 bans
Weaver
351 picks · 797 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 183 bans
Kunkka
278 picks · 466 bans
Spirit Breaker
273 picks · 402 bans
Ember Spirit
251 picks · 342 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% HellRaisers
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total82% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
Team Empire 18%HellRaisers 82%
The model gave 82% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 49:28.
Game 2prediction missed30:39
Team Empire 18%HellRaisers 82%
The model gave 82% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 56:28.
Game 3prediction missed34:29
Team Empire 18%HellRaisers 82%
The model gave 82% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Team Empire in 45:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 82%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3