Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
Bane
Kaori · 16 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 18 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 11 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
347 picks · 511 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 177 bans
Bane
300 picks · 234 bans
Weaver
290 picks · 643 bans
Monkey King
256 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
255 picks · 397 bans
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
224 picks · 144 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Team Empire 30%Hydra 70%
The model gave 70% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaShisui
Wraith KingKami
Kunkkalightless
BeastmasterBlizzy
Spirit BreakerGhostik
BatriderAskold
Grimstroke[T]SA
Keeper of the LightZayac
EnchantressKaori
MiranaMuka
Game 2prediction correct39:37
Team Empire 36%Hydra 64%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckShisui
Nature's ProphetBlizzy
Razorlightless
Ember SpiritKami
MarsGhostik
BatriderAskold
Dark Willow[T]SA
Spirit BreakerMuka
BaneKaori
GrimstrokeZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 78%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2