Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 20 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
Bane
Kaori · 17 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 16 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Tiny
xannii · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 26 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Bane
Muka · 20 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
497 picks · 444 bans
Mars
490 picks · 686 bans
Bane
465 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 519 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 647 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
Team Empire 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightxannii
Dragon KnightAskold
PuckSquad1x
Shadow Shamankickeed
EnigmaShachlo
TinyjAMES
Snapfire633
Game 2prediction correct23:24
Team Empire 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistxannii
Void SpiritAskold
PangolierSquad1x
Marcikickeed
ViperShachlo
Winter Wyvern633
TinyjAMES
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2