Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 20 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 17 games
Tiny
Cooman · 17 games
Bane
Kaori · 15 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 451 bans
Mars
493 picks · 697 bans
Bane
465 picks · 287 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 530 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:20
Team Empire 60%KBU.US 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 27:01.
Game 2prediction correct35:34
Team Empire 60%KBU.US 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 48:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 60%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2