Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mind Gameswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Bane
Kaori · 22 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Hoodwinksignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 16 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 15 games
Void Spirit
Shisui · 15 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
420 picks · 303 bans
Mars
395 picks · 573 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 734 bans
Queen of Pain
319 picks · 377 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
249 picks · 437 bans
Spirit Breaker
241 picks · 341 bans
Disruptor
234 picks · 162 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 22%
Hero pool strength50% Mind Games
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:40
Team Empire 66%Mind Games 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Mind Games in 52:53.
Game 2prediction missed17:53
Team Empire 66%Mind Games 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Mind Games in 43:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 66%
Series resultMind Games 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2