Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MooN teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 18 games
Tiny
xannii · 18 games
Bane
633 · 15 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 438 bans
Mars
478 picks · 697 bans
Bane
444 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 606 bans
Sand King
362 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
343 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Team Empire 27%MooN team 73%
The model gave 73% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 31:43.
Game 2prediction correct32:13
Team Empire 27%MooN team 73%
The model gave 73% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 30:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 73%
Series resultMooN team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2