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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Bane
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 25 games
32%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
21%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
17%

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 31 game
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
46%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 20 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
441 picks · 261 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 547 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
316 picks · 617 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 365 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 388 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 402 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 449 bans
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 549 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total61% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
Team Empire 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCooman
50% · 51 game53% · 152 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDodren
47% · 71 game45% · 57 games
Chaos KnightTheChosenOne
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawDkFogas
47% · 64 games62% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightHeaven
Keeper of the Light
Grimstroke
Grimstroke633
46% · 82 games59% · 13 games
LichVANSKOR
Lich
Clockwerk
Clockwerk[T]SA
39% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct40:19
Team Empire 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCooman
67% · 40 games46% · 158 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierDodren
46% · 299 games47% · 369 games
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDkFogas
46% · 149 games52% · 181 game
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Death Prophet
Death Prophet633
49% · 300 games52% · 265 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Clockwerk
Clockwerk[T]SA
51% · 185 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 61%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2