Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NMNo Monkey Businessloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 17 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 17 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 16 games
Linaoften banned
Shisui · 15 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Shisui · 14 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
No Monkey Business
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
548 picks · 385 bans
Queen of Pain
462 picks · 559 bans
Mars
446 picks · 636 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 823 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 533 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 567 bans
Wraith King
279 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
Team Empire 60%No Monkey Business 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCooman
Phantom Lancerxannii
TinyDodren
PuckEgor
Spirit BreakerDkFogas
LycanMieRo
TechiesAntares
Shadow Demonillusion
Treant Protector[T]SA
Clockwerkantoha
Game 2prediction missed26:35
Team Empire 60%No Monkey Business 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCooman
LinaEgor
Queen of PainDodren
Wraith Kingxannii
Spirit BreakerDkFogas
BeastmasterMieRo
RubickAntares
Disruptorillusion
Grimstroke[T]SA
Baneantoha
Game 3prediction correct27:19
Team Empire 63%No Monkey Business 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCooman
Lunaxannii
PuckDodren
Queen of PainEgor
MarsDkFogas
AxeMieRo
Skywrath MageAntares
Weaverantoha
Bane[T]SA
Shadow Demonillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 73%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3