Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 19 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
Iooften banned
[T]SA · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
No Monkey Business
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 3 games
Bane
antoha · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
RodjER · 2 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
377 picks · 495 bans
Mars
357 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 486 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 488 bans
Death Prophet
265 picks · 410 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 177 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:39
Team Empire 54%No Monkey Business 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 55:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyCooman
Templar AssassinEgor
Queen of PainDkFogas
Razorxannii
BatriderDodren
Sand KingMieRo
BaneAntares
Hoodwinkillusion
Pugna[T]SA
Undyingalagon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 58%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1