?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Sorryloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Tiny
Tiny
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Bane
Bane
633 · 20 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
37%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
21%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 11 games
36%

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 47 games
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 39 games
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 33 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 30 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 29 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
518 picks · 446 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 682 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 286 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 565 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 628 bans
47%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
333 picks · 653 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% No Sorry
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total73% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:14
Team Empire 36%No Sorry 64%
The model gave 64% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Team Empire in 44:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkka7jesu
39% · 175 games65% · 34 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Huskar
HuskarSquad1x
51% · 21 game49% · 174 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerShachlo
44% · 58 games60% · 158 games
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Viper
ViperjAMES
47% · 83 games57% · 67 games
PhoenixBLACKARXANGEL
Phoenix
Disruptor
Disruptor633
40% · 96 games
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Team Empire 34%No Sorry 66%
The model gave 66% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkka7jesu
48% · 203 games48% · 185 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanShachlo
53% · 56 games55% · 283 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
50% · 134 games55% · 193 games
BeastmasterLastHero-
Beastmaster
Snapfire
Snapfire633
39% · 217 games56% · 73 games
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkjAMES
44% · 124 games
Game 3prediction missed49:46
Team Empire 35%No Sorry 65%
The model gave 65% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Team Empire in 1:11:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist7jesu
32% · 17 games46% · 63 games
BloodseekerKami
Bloodseeker
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
45% · 143 games50% · 162 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterShachlo
57% · 168 games40% · 106 games
TidehunterLastHero-
Tidehunter
Zeus
ZeusjAMES
51% · 30 games55% · 113 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern633
59% · 86 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 73%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3