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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 10 games
80%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
454 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
396 picks · 593 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 897 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
328 picks · 239 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
295 picks · 412 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 399 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:10
Team Empire 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Empire in 40:00.
Game 2prediction correct27:43
Team Empire 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 52:18.
Game 3prediction missed23:9
Team Empire 44%PuckChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Empire in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 56%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3