Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Bane
Kaori · 15 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
335 picks · 487 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 167 bans
Bane
281 picks · 222 bans
Weaver
275 picks · 608 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 390 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 716 bans
Disruptor
219 picks · 134 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Empire
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:28
Team Empire 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Team Empire in 50:51.
Game 2prediction correct34:31
Team Empire 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 50:28.
Game 3prediction correct35:28
Team Empire 36%PuckChamp 64%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 50:30.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3