Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 19 games
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
Tiny
xannii · 19 games
Bane
633 · 18 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 14 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Shachlo · 11 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 436 bans
Mars
457 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 536 bans
Bane
408 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
348 picks · 569 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 644 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% PuckChamp
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Team Empire 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:18.
Game 2prediction correct17:32
Team Empire 46%PuckChamp 54%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:33.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 54%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2