EPIC League Season 3 Division 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RUSSIANDRILLloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 8 games
Earth Spirit
sayuw · 7 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Smiling Knight · 5 games
Disruptor
EcNart · 4 games
RUSSIANDRILL
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
393 picks · 873 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 524 bans
Mars
318 picks · 572 bans
Death Prophet
283 picks · 505 bans
Earth Spirit
282 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
254 picks · 160 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 518 bans
Wraith King
237 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:10
Team Empire 58%RUSSIANDRILL 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 32:13.
Game 2prediction correct20:31
Team Empire 58%RUSSIANDRILL 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 58%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2