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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
61%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
90%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
50%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
44%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 170 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
263 picks · 441 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
58%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
249 picks · 334 bans
47%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 251 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
236 picks · 402 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength61% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:14
Team Empire 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 46:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSmiling Knight
little data56% · 121 game
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
47% · 182 games51% · 104 games
Monkey Kinglil pleb
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterShachlo
48% · 107 games53% · 76 games
Centaur WarrunnerFunn1k
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
Miranasayuw
52% · 127 games44% · 121 game
Rubickdnz
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerVANSKOR
40% · 6 gameslittle data
DawnbreakerLeBronDota
Dawnbreaker
Game 2prediction missed14:25
Team Empire 65%Spider Pigzs 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
41% · 92 games55% · 71 game
Faceless Voidlil pleb
Faceless Void
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
54% · 31 game49% · 140 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterShachlo
50% · 84 games59% · 15 games
Vengeful SpiritFunn1k
Vengeful Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
56% · 67 games39% · 23 games
Bounty Hunterdnz
Bounty Hunter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVANSKOR
54% · 46 games48% · 71 game
DisruptorLeBronDota
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed8:26
Team Empire 64%Spider Pigzs 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSmiling Knight
52% · 26 games50% · 121 game
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterShachlo
55% · 126 games50% · 156 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
41% · 33 games42% · 87 games
Sand KingFunn1k
Sand King
Lion
Lionsayuw
45% · 173 games61% · 87 games
Keeper of the Lightdnz
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVANSKOR
50% · 93 gameslittle data
DawnbreakerLeBronDota
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 75%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3