Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Uniquewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Tiny
jAMES · 25 games
Clockwerk
jAMES · 20 games
Bane
633 · 19 games
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 19 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Snapfire
633 · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 12 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
580 picks · 454 bans
Mars
427 picks · 651 bans
Dragon Knight
395 picks · 516 bans
Puck
390 picks · 856 bans
Bane
376 picks · 252 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 622 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Team Empire 48%Team Unique 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 43:01.
Game 2prediction correct32:34
Team Empire 48%Team Unique 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 48:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 52%
Series resultTeam Unique 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2