Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 24 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
YNT
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 7 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
443 picks · 264 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 352 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
279 picks · 390 bans
Queen of Pain
277 picks · 454 bans
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:12
Team Empire 66%YNT 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCooman
HuskarMalr1ne
NecrophosDodren
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
Sand KingDkFogas
Dragon KnightDominic
EnchantressAntares
PugnadSa
Clockwerk[T]SA
Miranajesv
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Team Empire 63%YNT 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCooman
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Ember SpiritDodren
PangolierDominic
MarsDkFogas
PuckMalr1ne
Death ProphetAntares
Techiesjesv
Grimstroke[T]SA
UndyingdSa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 76%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2