DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Essenceloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Essence
Zeus
Varizh · 4 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
dalul · 1 game
Dark Seer
db- · 1 game
Team Kukuys
Marci
Palos · 7 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
397 picks · 505 bans
Muerta
388 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
331 picks · 404 bans
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 738 bans
Gyrocopter
305 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength64% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
Team Essence 24%Team Kukuys 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Essence in 32:10.
Game 2prediction correct22:39
Team Essence 24%Team Kukuys 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 36:43.
Game 3prediction correct32:37
Team Essence 24%Team Kukuys 76%
The model gave 76% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 39:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 76%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3