Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Faithloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Faith
Undyingoften banned
Nikolica · 2 games
Clockwerk
Nikolica · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 1 game
Sand King
Norma · 1 game
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
852 picks · 598 bans
Tiny
612 picks · 421 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 541 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
509 picks · 815 bans
Death Prophet
456 picks · 938 bans
Snapfire
454 picks · 313 bans
Clockwerk
405 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Team Faith 13%Alliance 87%
The model gave 87% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 39:33.
Game 2prediction correct12:37
Team Faith 13%Alliance 87%
The model gave 87% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 87%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2