PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 26 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
Alliance
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
342 picks · 285 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
312 picks · 517 bans
Rubick
304 picks · 294 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 431 bans
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 480 bans
Hoodwink
296 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
Team Falcons 96%Alliance 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:53.
Game 2prediction missed22:9
Team Falcons 96%Alliance 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Alliance in 26:31.
Game 3prediction correct23:43
Team Falcons 96%Alliance 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 96%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3