Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlas Burdenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
Spectreoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Cr1t- · 4 games
Wraith King
Skiter · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Sneyking · 3 games
Atlas Burden
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 3 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 2 games
Enchantress
Panto · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 2 games
Tusk
Panto · 2 games
Alchemist
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
259 picks · 330 bans
Dark Willow
245 picks · 114 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 219 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 291 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 429 bans
Muerta
187 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 40%
Hero pool strength70% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:43
Team Falcons 76%Atlas Burden 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCrystallis
Weaveriseedeadpeople
TimbersawMalr1ne
MagnusCloud
Nature's ProphetSneyking
Earth SpiritWorick
MarsATF
PugnaHellscream
TuskCr1t-
Treant ProtectorPanto
Game 2prediction correct18:17
Team Falcons 76%Atlas Burden 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCrystallis
Rikiiseedeadpeople
HuskarMalr1ne
InvokerWorick
DoomATF
Earth SpiritCloud
ChenSneyking
PugnaPanto
TuskCr1t-
GrimstrokeHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 90%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2