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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
77%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 28 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 25 games
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 24 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
87%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 14 games
79%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
SoNNeikO · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 290 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 431 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 524 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
301 picks · 291 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 424 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 473 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
289 picks · 795 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Team Falcons 75%AVULUS 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSkiter
52% · 98 games45% · 219 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
53% · 97 games46% · 126 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Mars
MarsATF
53% · 204 games49% · 64 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
47% · 194 games52% · 77 games
SniperEkki
Sniper
Omniknight
OmniknightSneyking
63% · 59 games43% · 166 games
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct23:6
Team Falcons 74%AVULUS 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 21:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
53% · 169 games48% · 250 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
52% · 54 games35% · 74 games
VisageXibbe
Visage
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
57% · 92 games54% · 104 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
53% · 173 games46% · 91 game
SniperEkki
Sniper
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
56% · 180 games44% · 149 games
TuskSoNNeikO
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 89%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2