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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 58 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 48 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 35 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
88%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 31 game
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 32 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 31 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 25 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
570 picks · 809 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 304 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 805 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 662 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
407 picks · 868 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
390 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
388 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 523 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Team Falcons 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
49% · 232 games41% · 128 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
43% · 279 games50% · 160 games
PuckMo13ei
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerATF
54% · 118 games44% · 199 games
Primal BeastXibbe
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSneyking
63% · 119 games46% · 276 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
55% · 77 games61% · 62 games
Ancient ApparitionSoNNeikO
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed7:28
Team Falcons 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
53% · 73 games43% · 41 game
LinaMo13ei
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
49% · 154 games46% · 110 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerATF
54% · 165 games50% · 195 games
JakiroXibbe
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
52% · 50 games49% · 87 games
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
44% · 60 games56% · 69 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2