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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
49%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 44 games
48%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 23 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 23 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
502 picks · 495 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 576 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
397 picks · 189 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
308 picks · 561 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
279 picks · 390 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 159 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
264 picks · 519 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 475 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Team Falcons 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:02:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
45% · 112 games51% · 128 games
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
Nature's Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
50% · 126 games51% · 254 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 276 games55% · 152 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
47% · 272 games50% · 336 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
49% · 208 games56% · 124 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct24:6
Team Falcons 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
46% · 100 games51% · 221 game
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSkiter
53% · 146 games60% · 13 games
Death ProphetMo13ei
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 213 games53% · 196 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
46% · 48 games56% · 85 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionCr1t-
43% · 84 games46% · 76 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2