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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 22 games
86%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
88%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
56%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 16 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
86%

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
60%
Lion
Lionsignature
fy · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 14 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
fy · 14 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 565 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
340 picks · 293 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
333 picks · 286 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
314 picks · 453 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 405 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
291 picks · 478 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
283 picks · 775 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
280 picks · 443 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
Team Falcons 53%Azure Ray 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
51% · 176 games50% · 112 games
Lunalou
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
47% · 220 games52% · 286 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
48% · 165 games48% · 132 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
51% · 164 games57% · 216 games
Nature's Prophetfy
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
49% · 134 games47% · 113 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct31:4
Team Falcons 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
52% · 42 games53% · 114 games
Lunalou
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
47% · 110 games46% · 31 game
ViperOri
Viper
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
53% · 148 games45% · 205 games
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Primal Beast
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
58% · 103 games45% · 113 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
47% · 142 games52% · 82 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct30:19
Team Falcons 53%Azure Ray 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
48% · 87 games48% · 102 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
52% · 48 games50% · 42 games
ZeusOri
Zeus
Underlord
UnderlordATF
61% · 57 games47% · 101 game
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 133 games48% · 155 games
Nature's Prophetfy
Nature's Prophet
Lion
LionSneyking
52% · 117 games56% · 42 games
Marci天命
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 56%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3