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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 46 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 41 game
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
73%

Blacklist International

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 668 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 586 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 190 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 216 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
287 picks · 535 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:9
Team Falcons 78%Blacklist International 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
43% · 217 games61% · 61 game
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
40% · 16 games55% · 180 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Doom
DoomATF
43% · 178 games54% · 211 games
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenSneyking
56% · 100 games46% · 169 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
48% · 142 games48% · 32 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:7
Team Falcons 78%Blacklist International 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
58% · 99 games46% · 97 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
59% · 34 games51% · 165 games
Templar AssassinAbed
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
46% · 288 games50% · 201 game
Primal BeastGabbi
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSneyking
56% · 101 game44% · 155 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
46% · 126 games46% · 30 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2