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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 47 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 39 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
82%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 30 games
83%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
483 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 636 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 737 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 559 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 162 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
385 picks · 339 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 757 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 558 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Team Falcons 79%BOOM Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
48% · 98 games46% · 223 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
52% · 132 games57% · 108 games
EnigmaSacred
Enigma
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
52% · 78 games47% · 276 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
43% · 111 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
54% · 188 games
Game 2prediction correct38:10
Team Falcons 81%BOOM Esports 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNine
43% · 79 games47% · 172 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
51% · 71 game47% · 66 games
DawnbreakerSacred
Dawnbreaker
Underlord
UnderlordATF
50% · 32 games60% · 82 games
Elder TitanPanda
Elder Titan
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
57% · 48 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
44% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 92%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2