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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 18 games
61%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 14 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 13 games
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
620 picks · 306 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
534 picks · 545 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 1111 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
375 picks · 196 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
357 picks · 606 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 159 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 266 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
Team Falcons 80%Execration 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
53% · 210 games52% · 219 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomATF
55% · 237 games52% · 370 games
Storm SpiritBob
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
55% · 218 games47% · 381 game
PangolierTino-
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
50% · 218 games42% · 94 games
Bounty HunterShanks
Bounty Hunter
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
49% · 286 games44% · 105 games
Axecml
Axe
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 94%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1