?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
77%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Tino- · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 24 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
cml · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
623 picks · 959 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
513 picks · 432 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 627 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
436 picks · 984 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 467 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 515 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
418 picks · 257 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 662 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
Team Falcons 74%Execration 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
46% · 424 games50% · 541 game
Dragon KnightPalos
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 256 games50% · 184 games
UndyingTino-
Undying
Pangolier
PangolierATF
49% · 401 game56% · 479 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
46% · 221 game57% · 370 games
Shadow DemonShanks
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskSneyking
46% · 652 games48% · 380 games
Disruptorcml
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct44:13
Team Falcons 75%Execration 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalr1ne
50% · 468 games46% · 370 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
55% · 329 games44% · 161 game
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 384 games47% · 65 games
LargoTino-
Largo
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
54% · 110 games48% · 539 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
57% · 400 games50% · 556 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 89%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2