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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 34 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 29 games
97%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 23 games
48%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 25 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
53%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 13 games
38%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 13 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
489 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
451 picks · 533 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 554 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
435 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 783 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 435 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 807 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:39
Team Falcons 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 99 games53% · 134 games
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 267 games42% · 68 games
BloodseekerWatson
Bloodseeker
Tiny
TinySkiter
55% · 241 game49% · 132 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
49% · 30 games51% · 194 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Zeus
ZeusSneyking
44% · 55 games52% · 164 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Team Falcons 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSkiter
57% · 51 game42% · 151 game
Earth SpiritQuinn
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
51% · 119 games45% · 49 games
Phantom AssassinWatson
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperMalr1ne
49% · 28 games53% · 150 games
DoomAce
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
52% · 218 games50% · 35 games
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
54% · 86 games47% · 117 games
LichSeleri
Lich
Game 3prediction correct38:10
Team Falcons 62%Gaimin Gladiators 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
55% · 130 games55% · 321 game
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
50% · 263 games49% · 136 games
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
47% · 437 games49% · 332 games
PhoenixAce
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
52% · 330 games57% · 154 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
43% · 39 games39% · 256 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3