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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 59 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 33 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 28 games
75%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 37 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 18 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 696 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
416 picks · 307 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
374 picks · 849 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
370 picks · 983 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
369 picks · 618 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 495 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:32
Team Falcons 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusSkiter
64% · 97 games55% · 138 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
59% · 132 games49% · 16 games
Outworld DestroyerQuinn
Outworld Destroyer
Dazzle
DazzleATF
41% · 34 games48% · 166 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
48% · 190 games43% · 113 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
48% · 129 games43% · 149 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed17:25
Team Falcons 59%Gaimin Gladiators 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
49% · 127 games46% · 188 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
55% · 112 games53% · 151 game
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusATF
58% · 140 games51% · 197 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
45% · 203 games52% · 62 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 166 games42% · 150 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2