BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 32 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 28 games
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 22 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Warlocksignature
Malady · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
454 picks · 659 bans
Jakiro
432 picks · 421 bans
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 716 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 634 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 507 bans
Beastmaster
300 picks · 602 bans
Warlock
296 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total50% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Team Falcons 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterATF
TinyWatson
LifestealerSkiter
MedusaAce
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Queen of PainQuinn
MiranaSneyking
RingmastertOfu
WindrangerCr1t-
JakiroMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 50%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1