PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:3series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Heroicwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 51 game
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
Razoroften banned
ATF · 22 games
Heroic
Clockwerk
Scofield · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 24 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Davai · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 15 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 14 games
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
337 picks · 267 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 435 bans
Enchantress
312 picks · 547 bans
Jakiro
306 picks · 247 bans
Clockwerk
292 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 466 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 402 bans
Sand King
283 picks · 789 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:43
Team Falcons 72%Heroic 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:13:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMalr1ne
BloodseekerParker
AlchemistSkiter
Earth Spirit4nalog
PangolierATF
Sand KingDavai
HoodwinkCr1t-
TuskScofield
Crystal MaidenSneyking
GyrocopterKJ
Game 2prediction missed26:28
Team Falcons 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSkiter
MorphlingParker
BristlebackATF
BeastmasterDavai
BatriderCr1t-
Earth Spirit4nalog
ChenSneyking
DisruptorKJ
PangolierMalr1ne
TuskScofield
Game 3prediction missed32:33
Team Falcons 72%Heroic 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
Shadow FiendParker
BroodmotherATF
Primal Beast4nalog
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Dark SeerDavai
SnapfireCr1t-
TuskScofield
ClockwerkSneyking
OmniknightKJ
Game 4prediction missed8:34
Team Falcons 72%Heroic 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSkiter
Sand King4nalog
BristlebackATF
Monkey KingParker
PuckMalr1ne
TimbersawDavai
Dark WillowCr1t-
EnchantressKJ
Shadow DemonSneyking
TuskScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultHeroic 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4