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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Heroicwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 296 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 1070 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
350 picks · 183 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 584 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
333 picks · 252 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:25
Team Falcons 71%Heroic 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 58:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
52% · 136 games50% · 250 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Pudge
PudgeMalr1ne
58% · 36 games48% · 150 games
Sand KingWisper
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 331 game49% · 196 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenSneyking
60% · 148 games46% · 290 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 262 games44% · 27 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultHeroic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1