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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 34 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 22 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 20 games
40%

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 26 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Wisper · 11 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 348 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
353 picks · 634 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 401 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 456 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
324 picks · 176 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
311 picks · 341 bans
49%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 576 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 329 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:36
Team Falcons 63%LGD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
53% · 134 games44% · 17 games
Phantom LancerYuma
Phantom Lancer
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
57% · 127 games44% · 252 games
SnapfireWisper
Snapfire
Mars
MarsATF
54% · 448 games48% · 161 game
WindrangerTopson
Windranger
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
43% · 47 games50% · 361 game
HoodwinkKJ
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
54% · 412 games48% · 377 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Team Falcons 62%LGD Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosATF
37% · 40 games55% · 73 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinySkiter
50% · 242 games50% · 62 games
LinaYuma
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 180 games50% · 245 games
GyrocopterTopson
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
48% · 83 games45% · 75 games
Spirit BreakerThiolicor
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
57% · 176 games49% · 266 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct38:21
Team Falcons 63%LGD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 50 games52% · 175 games
WindrangerYuma
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierATF
48% · 335 games58% · 153 games
Dragon KnightTopson
Dragon Knight
Sven
SvenSkiter
48% · 85 games50% · 170 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
44% · 38 games54% · 72 games
MiranaKJ
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
43% · 237 games54% · 175 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3