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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 69 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 49 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 46 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 41 game
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 36 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 35 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 963 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 435 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 624 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 996 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 471 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 261 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 551 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total76% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:29
Team Falcons 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
49% · 92 games54% · 264 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Razor
RazorATF
45% · 58 games45% · 287 games
BeastmasterMidOne
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 150 games48% · 69 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
48% · 365 games50% · 172 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSneyking
54% · 195 games53% · 68 games
Nyx Assassinyamich
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed9:32
Team Falcons 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
44% · 197 games47% · 345 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordATF
47% · 216 games61% · 167 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
50% · 125 games52% · 307 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Largo
LargoCr1t-
43% · 82 games45% · 367 games
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
46% · 648 games66% · 82 games
Treant Protectoryamich
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2