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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 17 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 20 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 16 games
56%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
613 picks · 301 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 535 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1100 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
366 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 597 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:5
Team Falcons 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
43% · 204 games53% · 102 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
52% · 180 games48% · 283 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
48% · 90 games53% · 195 games
Monkey Kingpma
Monkey King
Chen
ChenSneyking
60% · 137 games59% · 35 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Lion
LionCr1t-
48% · 166 games45% · 162 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1