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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 27 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%

Natus Vincere

Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 30 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 29 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 22 games
77%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Riddys · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 959 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 423 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 624 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
433 picks · 973 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 465 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 515 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
417 picks · 256 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 658 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:13
Team Falcons 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
50% · 339 games45% · 67 games
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 232 games47% · 381 game
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
49% · 234 games52% · 346 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSneyking
58% · 376 games52% · 332 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
52% · 409 games45% · 464 games
TinyZayac
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct37:16
Team Falcons 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
50% · 129 games54% · 103 games
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
48% · 135 games51% · 259 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsATF
44% · 183 games51% · 214 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 69 games43% · 36 games
Earth SpiritZayac
Earth Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
56% · 144 games53% · 48 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2