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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
49%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
56%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 30 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
62%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
503 picks · 495 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 579 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
402 picks · 193 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
313 picks · 563 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
280 picks · 390 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
275 picks · 161 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
267 picks · 562 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 477 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Team Falcons 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
48% · 146 games49% · 371 game
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
58% · 245 games48% · 239 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
50% · 229 games43% · 110 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Tusk
TuskSneyking
44% · 267 games52% · 184 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Lion
LionCr1t-
53% · 131 game55% · 114 games
Shadow ShamanZayac
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct35:7
Team Falcons 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
52% · 300 games56% · 116 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 323 games44% · 165 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterATF
51% · 314 games49% · 569 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
56% · 119 games42% · 154 games
EarthshakerZayac
Earthshaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
55% · 131 game47% · 183 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Accuracy by game2 of 2