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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 50 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Cr1t- · 24 games
58%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 25 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 20 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 18 games
83%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 739 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
497 picks · 797 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 478 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 379 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 536 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
437 picks · 1046 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 947 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 530 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:8
Team Falcons 62%Nigma Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
57% · 214 games52% · 59 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkiter
49% · 155 games47% · 79 games
TidehunterNo!ob
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarMalr1ne
49% · 59 games43% · 86 games
MarciGhost
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 136 games48% · 188 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCr1t-
55% · 78 games49% · 230 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct37:43
Team Falcons 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 55:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
49% · 187 games53% · 58 games
Nature's ProphetGhost
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMalr1ne
51% · 150 games44% · 10 games
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
Outworld Destroyer
Slardar
SlardarSkiter
53% · 68 games46% · 172 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 194 games48% · 199 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCr1t-
55% · 68 games48% · 228 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2