?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 46 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
72%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 24 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 22 games
68%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 676 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 454 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 352 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 594 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
309 picks · 194 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
305 picks · 225 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 534 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:39
Team Falcons 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 27:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
52% · 152 games47% · 105 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritATF
51% · 136 games56% · 116 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
58% · 12 games45% · 196 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
42% · 204 games53% · 121 game
SnapfireCeb
Snapfire
Io
IoSneyking
52% · 50 games60% · 16 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Team Falcons 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 109 games44% · 299 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
49% · 173 games50% · 23 games
Sand Kingbzm
Sand King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
53% · 152 games52% · 140 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
45% · 119 games53% · 238 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 166 games55% · 19 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2