?
arrow_backBack to match
ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 23 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 21 game
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
76%

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 370 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 226 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
369 picks · 650 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
340 picks · 347 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 235 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 333 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 441 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 390 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed57:60
Team Falcons 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 1:28:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinySkiter
46% · 265 games50% · 166 games
DawnbreakerRaven
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 171 game51% · 301 game
WindrangerNatsumi
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressCr1t-
50% · 105 games53% · 78 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
60% · 20 games49% · 108 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 204 games57% · 112 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Team Falcons 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSkiter
51% · 385 games51% · 430 games
TinyNatsumi
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerATF
49% · 171 game47% · 501 game
SnapfireYopaj
Snapfire
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
52% · 148 games49% · 110 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
54% · 651 game47% · 193 games
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingSneyking
47% · 169 games53% · 290 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2