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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
99%1%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Palianytsialoss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 28 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 27 games
74%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 24 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%

Palianytsia

Luna
Lunasignature
Crystallize · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 16 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 15 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 11 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
kreker · 10 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
fortniteMan · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
366 picks · 339 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 493 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 464 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 601 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
292 picks · 350 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 153 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 421 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 245 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total99% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:24
Team Falcons 87%Palianytsia 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
45% · 88 games51% · 121 game
AlchemistCrystallize
Alchemist
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
43% · 82 games50% · 38 games
ViperMoonlight
Viper
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
56% · 119 games51% · 168 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Chen
ChenSneyking
58% · 86 games52% · 193 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
44% · 169 games53% · 24 games
Lichkreker
Lich
Game 2prediction correct38:17
Team Falcons 87%Palianytsia 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSkiter
55% · 147 games52% · 128 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
52% · 80 games49% · 303 games
PangolierMoonlight
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
47% · 98 games51% · 189 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
45% · 220 games59% · 97 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
47% · 285 games45% · 113 games
Marcikreker
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 99%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2